Hey everybody happy tuesday there i am hold on should be working hope everybody's doing okay just as usual here's our new latest in the series of ta tuesdays with a combination of on-chain technical analysis.
And i will unveil a whole new indicator but before we jump in let's get rid of the usual stuff math money and freedom disclaimer of course not financial advice you guys know the drill so the question we have today is does ta work and the story is a little bit different than in the past but the idea is to unveil.
Does it work in 2022 we saw definitely it worked to a large extent in 2021 but during a very choppy market where markets go down up down all on the same day and have massive fluctuations in any given period it's interesting to watch so we'll dig into this but a lot of the idea behind this was triggered by bloomberg thank.
You to bloomberg and the team they put together a 2022 scorecard where they analyzed the directions of buying and holding stocks versus trading them using ta using a whole bunch of different technical indicators i think they used 22 different ta systems 12 of which delivered more positive results.
Than the returns from buying and holding and we're going to dig into those we're going to also unveil a brand new indicator as well for you all so stick around to the end we're going to analyze some charts but we got some news to get through first so as usual we'll do the good the badly ugly framework starting with the good let me know if you like it.
Or dislike it below and i will change i work for you guys so first of all we saw the biggest etp inflow ever mostly in places like europe and canada so bitcoin backtracked again all gains from last week we saw an 11 decline over the last seven days but that's okay we'll talk more about the bitcoin chart in a minute and.
Ethereum also followed closely especially with the eth btc correlation it approaches the march 2020 highs now with all the stuff happening in march fomc meeting absolutely exploding commodity prices and of course our black swan over in europe um etps still saw net inflows of about nearly 6 000 bitcoin in feb and.
Leading the global b to z exposure of bitcoin egps reached an all-time high of nearly 200 000 bitcoin on february 28th and coincidentally this is funny guess where we saw the strongest growth in etp growth canada i wonder why so literally that means people are beginning to wake up they see when things go down and they.
Take action as a result very quickly so um let's jump in and see what else is ahead first of all gold and the goldbach's pack token was rising with gold obviously has a gold peg so it's clear it'll do that but the pax token has done very well and kudos to coin bureau who actually has that as part of his.
Portfolio so interesting to watch and gold itself blew through that 2 000 rubicon which was like an albatross around his neck for the last 11 years it shot through it today and the question is will it ever come back we'll see but when you compare the gold action to.
What happened to nickel up 146 to 12 days wheat 37 oil 27 gold 5.84 this is the date since the actual invasion you can see it's been good but other things have done a lot better bitcoin has been down but.
In the past i've seen whenever gold is strong bitcoin lags gold it's not the immediate gold but the digital cold actually coincidentally moves a little bit slower than the real gold so we'll watch this space carefully but the strength in traditional gold should ultimately drive with the price of real gold at least it has done so in.
The past in other good news ethereum fees are at a six month low down to an average of about 15 bucks i still haven't managed to find a 15 fee but it's out there apparently sorry slightly dried show today so that's more good news for the ethereum chain despite all the bad news i've been.
Getting lately now the us and the uk banned russian oil imports this did rattle the markets today and it is amping up the squeeze on putin but the question is how much will that hamper these different countries so the us now has about nine thousand.
Permissions to drill both on land and i think offshore and uh they're already approved and the us also has very large oil reserves and it produces an awful lot of oil itself it's still because the cars here are not as efficient as little places it burns more than it should but that's all changing slowly i think thanks thanks to elon.
Musk now the uk i'm not sure maybe they can cut a deal with norway and pull some oil from down there and they also have some north sea drilling operations and we also have opec who could come to the rescue increased production as well but i'm not sure exactly what they have planned in combination with putin so we'll see but let me be very clear.
Inflation's gonna go through the roof i shouldn't laugh but you know this is what i've been saying even before all of this happened there's no way it's transitory we have not seen the impact of the increasing cost of things like fertilizer on food salary wage pressure going upwards all that type of.
Stuff that's going to hit hard that's going to put a lot of pressure on our friends of the fed this week what do they do the economy is very frail if the jack rates they'll kill the economy um i think they're just gonna have to put up 25 voices basis points and continue printing money as they go forward so.
That's that news now in terms of hash rate this is incredible from the block research it looks like the operating hash rate of all the top us miners in february went to the roof now there is one new player there on the far left it's core scientific and people ask why i did not.
Include core scientific in my previous minor analysis the one at the beginning of january and that's because it didn't ipo at that stage so i didn't have all the public information to make a decision however that's different right now so of course scientific is a beast looking at this you can see uh their preliminary.
Revenue i think in 2021 is about 550 million dollars making about 60 million in net income and they their hash rate they are planning to explode to about between 30 to 42 x a hash coming online in the next coming quarters and currently they have.
About what does that say 12 i can't read the numbers um 8.2 but they're going to triple that maybe even quadruplet in very short order they are making very large investments the only slight concern i have with these guys despite having about nearly 6 000 bitcoin on their balance sheet is the fact that they've.
Got less than a year of cash left so we will be digging into their financials and seeing exactly if there is a concern also the stock has been a little bit shaky we'll analyze the chart later so hang on for that for the core scientific fans out there now another good news bitcoin higher lows are holding so this is a simple little chart that shows you.
Kind of where the lows began we had the low on the 24th which i i jumped into then we had a vicious low on the 24th of january we had a second one on the 24th of feb but you can see that they're going higher and higher over time so we had about thirty three five and then we had about thirty four six and now we just.
Bounced off another level so that we're going to watch that very carefully to see if that increasing higher lows increases because that's an actual bullish sign fingers crossed it will fingers crossed that people are investing in traditional gold will start pumping some money in here too now in more good news.
This is the thud regarding energy usage that came out yesterday from massari and it looks at carbon emissions of bitcoin compared to other industries obviously uh tumble dryers is the big story of the day i think we should ban all tumble dryers and clothes washers and not to mention air conditioning which uses.
Infinitesimally more electricity as well as gold mining everything else but it's just more this thud of how people try and attack bitcoin yes it uses a lot of energy but it stores a lot of value as well as we go forward so the question is does closed drying have a trillion dollars in value we'll see anyway avalanche.
Their foundation just unleashed another large amount of spending 290 million dollars to promote their subnet development now subnets also called sub networks these are validators that can establish their own layer one or layer twos on avalanches kind of in infrastructure and.
They want to do things like help people build out more maybe games like defy kingdoms play to earn games which is a hot area etc all the metaverse type stuff so we'll see where this goes but that's a large amount of money to fund that investment so expect a lot of action to be built and remember as well incentives drive.
Action and they drive demand for tokens we're trying to build a model around exactly how that impacts the price sorry about this little drag off today so let's go to the bad news good news is there's not too much bad news today so first of all the greed and fear is back at extreme fear last week we had.
Greed at 51 and last month fear at 48. so we are right back to where we started so it's amazing the way it oscillates but this is going to be important for later for a technical indicator i want to look at also gbtc discount is potentially bottoming around this 28 level it's incredible that you can buy an asset that has nearly 30 off versus.
Spot but if you look at this chart carefully you can see a little red arrow going downwards the trend has been down and that is a massive play however grayscale have responded and they have announced they are going to buy about 250 million dollars back of grayscale trust shares and this could have a short-term impact on the shares leading.
To less of an actual discount as we go forward so we'll watch that carefully now there is a lot of talk that this is the et the first bitcoin etf simply by virtue of the fact they have 650 000 bitcoins within their fund and they should do but the markets are a little bit skittish right now because they're not reading.
The positive signs from gary gensley that he's going to approve this hence the 28 near 29 discount compared to nav but we'll see what the buyback program does but that should bring it back to 25 or even 20 discount if they buy sufficient so we'll see now let's look at commodities we did we talked a bit about commodities.
But this is the bloomberg commodity index and it's blasting through the roof it is just all commodities doesn't matter where you are it's number go up technology right now and the other piece of kind of sort of bad news but maybe has a bit of a positive spin this is biden.
Signed the clearing the way for the crypto oversight and thank you to watson for keeping on top of all our regulatory uh developments but the focus of this order is really to direct various agencies to conduct studies and develop regulations around it so there's different councils like financial stability.
Oversight council unfortunately chaired by janet yellen is to examine the effects of digital assets and financial stability and make recommendations she probably say hey jp morgan why don't you go take care of everything and then we've got the treasury and justice department um looking at crypto use for illicit.
Finance good news is they're not going to find too much there um and third the epa and the office of science and technology will look at the environmental impact of digital assets so all in all not too bad there will be no bitcoin ban there might be some stable.
Coin regulation and we'll see but my only concern is janet yellen and what she puts through hopefully she has good people giving her good counsel and not to do anything too radical because she doesn't quite understand the space she doesn't have the hundred hours or a thousand hours to research okay let's start with the ugly let's go uh first of.
All bitcoin philippines plans to launch a pilot cbdc implementation and uh watch bitcoin next volume 6 load of manila is what i think also india's finance minister expects cbdc to roll out this year wow well we said they were going to come fit fast and furious but this is kind of scary and as the.
World continues to transform and that's what we've seen over the last two months yeah um like all trust in fiat is just gone the fiat emperor has no clothes something i tweeted earlier today um but this has this these cbdc's have to come because the banks are so antiquated and how they manage things.
Like payments payment systems resilience efficiency are just terrible um i actually had to walk into a traditional bank branch yesterday and had to stand in line for 20 minutes i was like what the hell am i doing here but i had to shut down an account so you have to physically go in to shut down the account you can't just pick up the phone.
Or do it online it's kind of sad anyway philippines is a little bit scary um for those not getting political but apparently killed more than 7 000 people in six months the president encourages murder of things like drug dealers and uh you know imagine him turning off and.
Not saying you know drug dealers should be controlled of course it's very good thing but can you imagine how much other outreach they could have going forward so again cbdc's should drive people to bitcoin and cryptocurrency very quickly so today the charts we're going to look at microstrategy core scientific bitcoin.
Phantom tesla and avalanche so let's jump in and what i'm going to also do is tied back to this this is the bloomberg article and it looked at some of their favorite ta indicators and how they compared to buying and holding so you got the williams percentage r the rex oscillator the dmi.
I'll talk a bit about exponential moving average i kind of use them differently in areas i use mas and exponential mas as part of other indicators so i'm going to ignore that one rate of change i don't use fear and greed i look at all the time rsi i use and bollinger bands i use all the time and buy and hold well is it the year to.
Do that so we'll see as i mentioned before uh the top systems here the orange bar indicates where i beat buying and holding if you trade it simply off of ta so let's jump into the first one this is the williams percentage r this is not one that i use i've been familiar with it for over 20.
Years but never one i used and the percentage r just to explain for those who might like it is between 0 and 100 like men and minus 100 which makes minus 50 the midpoint and the williams percentage r cross above the minus 50 signals that prices are trading in the upper half of their high low range for a given look.
Back period which is typically bullish and conversely across below the 50 the minus 50 prices are trading in the bottom half of a given look back period which is bearish that's how it works i never liked it i never found it to work i never found it to give me timely signals so i don't like it but what i do like is.
This one this is the one i'm unveiling today this is the the rex oscillator so you can see the blue bars below i won't go into how it's actually calculated here but if you guys want me to and test it across a whole bunch of cryptos and stocks i can do that let me know but i found it is a very good indicator.
For an indicating really good bottoms so for example if you can see the biggest sl of my life on microstrategy i went in hard on january 24th i literally put all my chips on the table almost massive amounts of um margin were sucked up into this as well.
And you can see the rex oscillator was almost at a record low and way outside the bollinger band so i knew i was like okay well if ta does work this is the biggest buy signal i've had in my life now weirdly enough we got back there again just a couple of days.
Later and i was like oh maybe i missed the bottom i didn't actually it didn't go bleed beneath 3 30 where we went in and that's it and since then we've also had just like bitcoin higher lows from there and we're in the middle of the bollinger band range so that is the rex oscillator we'll look at that as well.
Now with phantom so this is phantom and the rex oscillator here i've also put in a green line which shows you the long term support level for phantom and that's at about a dollar 36 a dollar 30 depending on how you draw your line now if you look at the rex oscillator it nails the bottom back in.
On the 24th and again on yesterday and today now there was a lot of news about andre leaving the team and a lot of concern but i think at this point everybody i would not be selling phantom in fact if i had any money i'd probably buy some.
Um and not of course not financial advice but i don't see it going below this 130 level right now actually let me check the real time chart funny if i said that and it just tanked but i think it's at a pretty strong support level uh it's 132.2 so.
Not bad still flat on the day but it seems to be holding up at that support level so again watch this carefully it's nice to look at the racks in combo with bollinger bands and maybe layer in rsi as well to get a good indicator now let's look at dmi this is one also i don't use it just makes me.
Dizzy when i look at it and i've never been able to make head or tail of it but remember the reason i'm showing you the directional movement index it is a good momentum indicator and it's just it's just always been too busy for me and sometimes looking at less indicators is better than looking at too many because you get confusion but try find.
Confidence with ones you like and if this is something that appeals to you go ahead and dig into it let me know but again i have already too many indicators on my plate now let's look at bollinger band and bitcoin here this is just a perfect indicator of exactly how it works so well so we have the kill zone synthetic long time where.
I was watching microstrategy and bitcoin the same time 24th boom bottom 33k then we had our 34.6k floor coincidentally on the 24th as well also nailed by the bollinger band and then we have the 40k 45k overbought position again creeping outside the bollinger band and that is.
One of my favorite indicators i always always have my bollinger band turned on it's where i turn it off so it's a key one for you all out there now let's look at fear and greed index this one you know bloomberg very positive on it i don't quite think it's that reliable because there's too much sentiment in there um but it did miss on the i think.
Sixth of january when it was maximum fear it did nail the 24th boom but that was also fueled by a lot of news uh that was very negative out there and then of course the 24th again of february it nailed it too but we happen it went back down there a few days later and it's very.
It's down there at that 20 level right now again like we discussed earlier but again just like bitcoin it has higher lows as we go forward and we're not getting that extreme fear of down to 10. it's kind of hovering around 20 which is good right now so it's not bad it's always one worth looking at but not one trade-off in my opinion now.
Let's look at tesla bollinger bands and the rex so here you see an example of where the bollinger bands work and the rex doesn't so you can see uh every time tesla falls out of the bollinger band that's the time where you snipe it always kind of mean reverts after it gets overbought it's been very slow now but again we also have that green line.
Which is kind of ascending support over the longer term and we'll see where we go but with all the good news for tesla coming up nothing but positiveness for the year and even i mean going back to oil the estering oil price and people.
Being hurt by the cost it takes to fuel their vehicles if they've got a long commute to work or whatever i feel bad for those people i heard a story that somebody had to buy a hundred dollars of diesel to fuel their tank and before it used to cost 50 bucks so it's like more than doubled in a very short window of time so hang.
Tough everybody but this should also fuel the demand for electric vehicles and tesla doesn't need any more demand because you've got to wait a year for till you get your car anyway but hopefully with berlin and texas going online that should accelerate as they go forward now core scientific again they ipo'd on the 20th of january so as.
I mentioned it was too late for a recent minor analysis but we will do another one i promise you hopefully by the end of this month we look at a ton of numbers and we create ratios on ratios to create our own different ratios but here you can see the combination of rsi identifies pretty well when to get in.
And when to get out not today we had huge volatility in core scientific it dipped hard and it closed really strong up of seven percent i think and it was down for the day but the key thing of how i use this rsi oscillator is when the moving average which is the yellow line crosses the purple line on an upward movement that is that when it.
Indicates if that purple line is beneath the 30 and you get the yellow cross that is a buy signal for me you don't see it too often but when you do it's a very very good confirmation as we go forward and finally avalanche and rex let's see if this one works here avalanche you can see that the rex indicator works really well it's like rex works well for crypto.
And not so well for equities but again in combination with bollinger bands you can see 65 solid support we had a snipe level down to the 54s 56s back right before the 24th of january and pretty solid support at 65 but we are facing this is why it's important as well everybody ladies and gentlemen out there to look at what's.
Going on with lockup expirations and stuff so there is a lockup expiring which could put some access tokens on the market which could bring about some selling pressure and keep it down that might be the reason we are outside the bollinger band right now um i wouldn't be jumping in here unless we get down to 65 then i get a little nibble if i had.
Any cash who knows but again watch that selling pressure from the recent lockup so everybody that is the show for today i hope you got something from it check out the rex indicator let me know if you want to do a deep dive deep dive on it and back test it too thank you all for being here and have a great safe evening cheers.